Showing posts with label suburbs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label suburbs. Show all posts

Monday, February 18, 2013

Hipsturbia: The Colocation of Consumption and Housing

The New York Times offered up a new trend piece about "Creating Hipsturbia." The thrust of the piece is that traditionally unhip suburbs such as Hastings-on-Hudson, New York are attracting young families away from traditionally hip places in Brooklyn. As this is a trend piece in the New York Times the entirety of evidence is quite likely a few of the author's friends who have made such a move. But the trend (as it is) described does offer some interesting bits about urban economics and the spatial distributions of activities.

As a bit of background, for all of the interest and cheerleading that cities are revitalizing because people want to live downtown, what is actually happening to metropolitan economies is more complex. Here is one example from this morning's Detroit Free Press about downtown Detroit's revitalization. The DFP story highlights that downtowns across the US are growing (or not) and generating lots of economic activity. Yet there are two distinct forces affecting city regions, which is why downtown areas can be doing seemingly okay while our regions continue to sprawl and any benefits from growth are inequitably distributed. What is happening is that within metropolitan economies forces of production continue to disperse while forces of consumption are concentrating in the center of regions. Production is decentralizing away from urban centers to elsewhere in the region or world to places where firms can minimize land and transportation costs while maintaining access to an adequate labor pool. This is happening with firms, as well, which is known as firm fragmentation. As an example, Amazon.com has been praised as a market leader for moving its headquarters to downtown Seattle, but most of Amazon.com's employment and real estate growth is actually through fulfillment centers and warehouses located on the urban fringe (like this in Texas, more here on distribution centers generally).

Consumption, on the other hand, is concentrating. People of means want certain types of retail, recreation, dining and other discretionary activity bundles. Households value such activity bundles as part of their location decisions along with commuting costs, housing size, schools and other things. What the "Hipsturbia" article highlights, however, is that many of the people who value a "hip" consumption bundle are the same people who produce the hip places. From the story:
“I don’t think we need to be in Brooklyn,” said Marie Labropoulos, who recently moved to Westchester County and opened a shop, Kalliste, selling artisanal vegan soap in Dobbs Ferry. “We’re bringing Brooklyn with us.”
I have no idea how big the market is for artisanal vegan soap, even in Brooklyn. But by bringing Brooklyn with them these migrants are creating new consumption bundles. There are two important aspects of this. First, there are positive externalities associated with opening a artisanal vegan soap store beyond clean people. The store creates a hip vibe that makes other hipsters more willing to move to these places. Perhaps someone will be more willing to open a store that sells only things made of tofu nearby. A virtuous cycle of hipness is created. Second, consumption preferences are valued as part of an overall household budget. A bigger house and better public schools are a trade off for less access to your optimal consumption bundle, but if you bring your store with you commuting costs may not change.

None of these are new observations, and again, no one is claiming that a New York Times trend piece is any evidence of an actual trend. What these anecdotes represent are a confirmation of fairly conventional understandings of household location decisions but with the key differences that consumption preferences and colocation of households and consumption amenities are under considered by planners, economists and researchers. Consumption activities are also quite local in scale (such as retail and dining, though things like museums require a larger market), so individual neighborhoods can become quite desirable while nearby areas remain unloved. More interesting is the potential colocation of households and consumption as many households are also providers of the consumption activities. If what you value is vegan soap or gluten-free muffins or craft beer and it happens that you are in the business of providing those things, then you can pretty much locate anywhere there is a market, including commuter towns on the outskirts of the city. When producers and consumers are one in the same we don't really know (yet) if the decentralization of production or the centralization of consumption will be dominant for location decisions. It may be that the suburbanization of consumption will follow the suburbanization of production.






Friday, June 29, 2012

Some Thoughts on City v. Suburban Growth


Source: WSJ (Linked below)
Lots of media outlets are picking up the story first reported in the Wall Street Journal that cities are growing faster than suburbs. See here, here, and here for samples. A few things about these data that suggest we should interpret the results with caution. First, these are growth rates, not absolute numbers. Because central cities make up a minority share of regional population most population growth--by a lot--is happening in the suburbs. Consider Atlanta, the second fastest growing city compared with its suburbs according to the chart at top. Atlanta has 432,427 people as of July 2011 and grew at 2.4%. The suburbs have 4,926,778 in July 2011 and grew at 1.3%. Here is the data source. This means that the metro growth was 73,361 for the year, 10,135 settled in Atlanta and 63,226 settled in the suburbs. In percentage terms, 14% of the growth happened in the central city and 86% happened in the suburbs. That doesn't suggest a sea change in attitude.

For most of the metros, the difference between city growth and suburban growth is so small I'm not sure that the difference is statistically meaningful (see the table at the data source above). 2011 are estimated data, and there is an error term associated. Perhaps all of the differences in growth rates are significant, but they have not been tested yet.

There are also large variations by region of the country and metropolitan area, and there does not seem to be any obvious and coherent trend. The headline claim is that more than half of metro areas saw one year growth rates in central cities higher than for suburbs. That means about half saw central city growth lower than suburban growth. In addition, many of the faster growing central cities are growing at essentially the same rate as their suburbs for the one year period in question.

There very well may be a shift in preferences and behaviors happening, and I suspect there is because preferences and behaviors are always changing. I just don't see that the stories highlighted here provide strong evidence that a large shift happened in 2010-11.

Lastly, let's look at how some central cities that have received nice press about robust growth fared. Here is my post from May 4 titled "Can We Exaggerate the Significance of Cleveland's Downtown Population Gains?" and, yes, we can exaggerate the importance of a few people moving to downtown Cleveland. Cleveland shrunk by a rate (-.6%)greater than the rate its suburbs shrunk (-.3%). Cincinnati has also been celebrated recently (see here and here and here for a few examples). That's going so well that the city is declining while the suburbs are growing (see above graphic). I'm happy that many cities are doing well and growing. I hope the trend (if there is one) continues and expands. I'm just not sure there is any evidence of a broad trend yet.


***This post was updated to correct typos in the Atlanta data in the first paragraph.