Views of the Future

Microsoft has a new ad promoting its version of the future. (Watch below.) It is striking to me that this future is a lot like the present, just with different gadgets that let us do the same thing we do now marginally better.



How well will Microsoft do in the prediction game? Probably pretty well since they are likely working on all of the ideas they feature. AT&T did really well predicting the future way back in 1993:


And Apple was extremely prophetic in 1987:


But do these views of the future get anyone all that excited? Some of these ideas presented are potentially revolutionary, but most are just doing the same thing a bit better. My larger point, however, is that these visions of the future focus on marginal improvements rather than big ideas. Even though the military is still working on flying cars (get this week's update here and the 1958 update here), the future depicted by technology companies is pretty much a future of going to more meetings, which is not exactly a space-age concept. We're not really even space-age anymore, for that matter.

Here is a bold vision of the future from Disney in the 1950s:


And here is what AASHTO says now:


AASHTO sounds sensible and boring, and will be well served by the productivity gains from Microsoft, I suppose.

So what is exciting for the future? Flying helicopters with your mind, of course! Clever researchers at the University of Minnesota have developed software that allows the user to fly around the Minnesota campus by thinking hard while wearing a special hat. Here is the paper, and video is at this io9.com link. Let's see more views of the future with mind control, autonomous cars and other technologies that fundamentally change the things we do (so we can do different things) instead of marginal improvements of what we already do. After all, we're still waiting for the telecommuting revolution to kick in.

Reinventing the Wheels: Monday Oct 31 at The New School

On Monday, October 31 I will be presenting at "Reinventing the Wheels: Improving Urban Transport in the Global City." See photo for details, but the panels look great.

If a Bridge is Stolen and No One Notices Does It Make a Sound?

I think we can all agree that if you steal a bridge and no one notices within an week we probably didn't need the bridge very much. This is (was) evidence of overbuilt infrastructure. At least there is less to take care of now. Click the link for details:

$100K Steel Bridge Dismantled, Stolen From Rural Area - Pittsburgh News Story - WTAE Pittsburgh

Charge Utilities Rent for Disrupting Traffic

London has a major problem with roadworks, apparently, and there are renewed calls to charge the offending utilities rent for any road lanes taken out of service while performing tasks underground. Christian Wolmar explains:

Back in the early 1990s I remember attending press conferences about
proposed new legislation that would make the utilities pay rent for the
lanes that put out of use, thereby inducing them to carry out the work
faster. To no avail: the utilities protested, blocking any attempt to
enforce the legislation.

Now we are back to the starting line on that idea, with the Government
consulting on “lane rental” and promising legislation. We’re told we might
have a system in place in London by next spring.

 This is an interesting idea that seems like it could generate high levels of popular support and real benefits in terms of less disruption and new revenue.

"The Social Life of Small Urban Spaces" is Now Online

One of my favorite planning related films (The Towering Inferno being another) is now available via YouTube. It is still useful for planning techniques and understanding public space. If you haven't seen it you should watch it.

Estimating Value of Time from Choosing to Travel by Acela

I'm going to Washington, DC this week, so I had to book a ticket to get there. Flying costs about $250, but that doesn't include time and money costs of getting to the airports. Ultimately, flying is too expensive and takes too long so I take the train when I go to the capital once or twice a year. I usually take the Acela, too, but I think I am over-valuing my value of time. Select Northeast Regional trains will get me to DC in 3 hours and 12 minutes for a $78 base fare. The Acela will speed me there in 2 hours and 49 minutes for $222. (Fares are each way.) So I am paying $144 to save 23 minutes (this suggests I would pay $375 to save an hour), a slightly nicer seat and a frustrating wireless experience.

This assumes, of course, that the Acela is on time, which is not always the case. Last time I took the Acela it was 45 minutes late getting to my destination, more than wiping out any time savings, and I was not offered a refund for the extra expense. When I rode the TGV from Paris to Lyon this summer, the train was 45 minutes late and there were nice people waiting on the platform in Lyon with envelopes to use to send in your ticket for a refund. This happens a fair amount with the TGV and they are well equipped to handle it.  (Of course, the Japanese Shinkansen was tardy by a cumulative .6 seconds for 2010 so no one worries about refunds there.)

In any event, the Acela premium is steep, and it reflects high values of time (and the fact that someone else is picking up the tab).  My train better be prompt!

The Ig Noble Peace Prize Awarded for Crushing Cars Parked in the Bike Lane

I love the Ig Noble awards. I love them even more now that they awarded the 2011 Ig Noble Peace Prize for this:

PEACE PRIZE: Arturas Zuokas, the mayor of Vilnius, LITHUANIA, for demonstrating that the problem of illegally parked luxury cars can be solved by running them over with an armored tank.

REFERENCE: VIDEO and OFFICIAL CITY INFO

ATTENDING THE CEREMONY: Arturas Zuokas

Here is an important field experiment in driver safety:

PUBLIC SAFETY PRIZE: John Senders of the University of Toronto, CANADA, for conducting a series of safety experiments in which a person drives an automobile on a major highway while a visor repeatedly flaps down over his face, blinding him.

REFERENCE: "The Attentional Demand of Automobile Driving," John W. Senders, et al., Highway Research Record, vol. 195, 1967, pp. 15-33. VIDEO

ATTENDING THE CEREMONY: John Senders

And since this is a blog post, I'll mention the prize for literature:

LITERATURE PRIZE: John Perry of Stanford University, USA, for his Theory of Structured Procrastination, which says: To be a high achiever, always work on something important, using it as a way to avoid doing something that's even more important.

REFERENCE: "How to Procrastinate and Still Get Things Done," John Perry, Chronicle of Higher Education, February 23, 1996. Later republished elsewhere under the title "Structured Procrastination."

ATTENDING THE CEREMONY: Colleague Deborah Wilkes accepted the prize on behalf of Professor Perry.

My Monday lecture isn't writing itself.

You can watch the whole ceremony here: